I find this approach, described at IEEE Spectrum for modeling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, very appealing:

Current models that track epidemics make predictions about how a disease advances among individuals but don’t take into consideration things that change as it is passed along, such as how a virus mutated or what is being done to control its spread, Poor says. A common model being used for the coronavirus, known as SIR (susceptible, infected, and recovered), is a very basic one for viral spread. He says it doesn’t take into account factors such as underlying health conditions of patients or that some people spread more of COVID-19 droplets than others.

“Previous models for epidemics assumed a pathogen or a piece of information is transferred across network nodes without going through any modifications or evolutionary adaptions,” Poor and his colleagues wrote in that 2019 research article. “[But] in real-life spreading processes, pathogens often evolve in response to changing environments and medical interventions, and the information is often modified by individuals before being forwarded.”

Once the pandemic hit, Poor realized his model could be applied to COVID-19.

“Contact tracing and social distancing are known by epidemiologists to work so we’re not going to try to prove they do work,” Poor says. “What we’re going to bring to the table is a more refined understanding of when to apply these and other measures and what to expect of them.”

When people are physically connected, they form what’s called a multi-layered network, Poor says. The network could include family, coworkers, classmates, or social media friends. They, plus their acquaintances, form various degrees of connections, which the researchers call layers.

The researchers will first model these networks using data about the pandemic from a comprehensive data source, known as a data lake, maintained by C3.ai. The database includes the current number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, hospitalizations, and recoveries for countries, including by city, state, province, or county.

“It’s quite extensive, and includes details about COVID-19 victims and spread from a variety of sources globally,” Poor says.

The model can incorporate properties of the spread of the novel coronavirus that have been learned by public health and medical personnel over the past few months, Poor says. That includes the existence of “super spreaders,” asymptomatic spreaders, and delays between when a person becomes contagious and begins showing symptoms. Differences in responses to the virus between populations can also be incorporated into the model, he says, as well as some of the evidence for mutations that has emerged.

I hope they avoid the data from China since I question its veracity. I will look forward to the results of using this approach and don’t wish to prejudge them.

You might want to take a look at Scott Sumner’s most recent offering at 富强上网app:

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Well, that might be true, but how would we know? We have models, but these models certainly don’t predict that NGDP would fall at a 34.3% rate in a quarter where disposable income is actually rising. And not just rising, but (according to the BEA) rising at an almost insane annual rate of 42.1%. In real terms it was even higher, due to deflation:

Real disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 44.9 percent in the second quarter after increasing 2.6 percent in the first quarter.

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You might respond that our common sense does provide an answer—people were afraid to go out shopping due to the virus. I accept that theory. But as far as I know there are no models that predict fiscal stimulus will be effective when people are afraid to go out shopping. And with the new Q2 GDP data there is also no empirical evidence that fiscal stimulus boosted GDP.

Read the whole thing.

It seems to me that the conclusion to draw from the facts he submits is that the measures most needed, whether from the federal, state, or local governments, are measures to increase confidence. That is not exactly in President Trump’s wheelhouse and, maybe it’s just Illinois, but I haven’t seen state and local officials doing much in that regard, either.

Vaccine researcher and scholar Michael S. Kinch expresses worry about a premature vaccine at STAT:

Hey, Food and Drug Administration: Don’t be rash! Premature approval of a sub-standard Covid-19 vaccine could have dire implications, and not just for this pandemic. It could harm public health for years, if not generations, to come.

Unfortunately, elements now in place make such a disastrous outcome not only possible but in fact quite likely. Specifically, the FDA and its staff of chronically overworked and underappreciated regulators will face enormous public and political pressure to approve a vaccine. Whether or not one worries about an “October surprise” aimed at the upcoming election, regulators will be pressed hard. Some will stand firm. Some may resign in protest. But others could break and allow a bad vaccine to be released.

What makes a “bad vaccine”? Insufficient protection against the disease it is designed for, unwanted side effects, or some combination of the two. If an approved Covid-19 vaccine turns out to be ineffective, this could unintentionally promote wider spread of the disease by individuals who presume they were protected from it. Likewise, a negative experience with one vaccine might discourage the use of other vaccines that are far more safe and effective, whether they are for Covid-19 or other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Some things take time. Under normal circumstances, ensuring that a vaccine’s effects are safe and durable requires years of study and monitoring. And there is some evidence that natural immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection could be transient, making sustained investigation all the more necessary. A merely short-term effect could encourage vaccinated individuals to resume risky behaviors, which would all but guarantee that the epidemic endures. And if unintended side effects turn out to include, for instance, chronic inflammatory or autoimmune disease, a bad vaccine could impart lifelong damage.

But wait, there’s worse! A bad Covid-19 vaccine could further undermine confidence in the many safe, reliable vaccines already in our public health arsenal. Vaccine skepticism and anti-science bias, propagated by B-list celebrities and Russian troll farms, have been gaining strength all year. Combined with disappointing Covid-19 outcomes, such malign forces could facilitate the reemergence of once-vanquished foes — polio, measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, whooping cough, and tetanus — that once killed multitudes of children each year.

These are enormous risks. Placing all of our bets on a small set of untried vaccine technologies would be gobsmackingly foolish. Yet this is exactly what we are now doing. Most of the high-profile names capturing headlines are pursuing comparatively minor variations on a theme of genetic vaccines (those delivered via DNA or RNA). If one approach happens to work, the odds are higher the others will work as well. Disappointing results from one candidate, though, might presage failure across the board.

Read the whole thing. The pressures—political, economic, and social—to produce a vaccine quickly will be enormous and will increase over the coming months.

Yesterday I mentioned that I didn’t know where the figure of $200 per week that the Republicans have proposed came from. I do have a pretty good idea of where the $600/week in the CARES Act came from: it’s $15/hour for 40 hours a week. Those wanting to “Fight for 15” must be delighted.

There’s a real risk that the HEROES Act, the successor to the CARES Act, will make that permanent. It will create the expectation that that people will be paid whether they work or even looks for jobs or not. The reason it’s a risk is that 40% of American workers earn $15/hour or less. You may find that horrifying but it’s the reality.

You can legislate, as has been done, a benefit of $600 a week without a work requirement. You can’t pay for it without an effective tax rate higher than anything than has been realized in the U. S. in its history or just issuing ourselves credit which, if done without accompanying increases in production, will result in inflation and risks a loss of confidence in the currency. That’s what has been done. As a panic-stricken move during an emergency it can be justified. It’s far harder to justify as a persistent strategy.

You can legislate a minimum wage of $15/hour but you can’t legislate that workers will be worth $15/hour. And if you believe in supply and demand you can’t believe that you can maintain a minimum wage of $15/hour without controlling immigration and, indeed, without reducing legal immigration of low skill workers to a level much lower than it is presently.

If compassion leads you to believe that no one should earn less than $600/week in the U. S. it should be done via wage supplements paid via employers rather than through raising the minimum wage or simply granting a benefit.

The adverse effects of maintaining the $600/week income subsidy will be substantial. Who would look for or take a job at less than $15/hour when they can do nothing and make the same income? Only the very honorable or the very determined, which is not how I’d describe most of the people. Some people will simply sit idle in a stupor. Those are the least of our worries. Many will supplement their weekly stipend with illegal earnings—off the books, dealing in illegal goods and services, theft, and so on.

You might be interested in Kathryn A. Edwards’s analysis at RAND of the $600 weekly unemployment benefit increment:

In the CARES Act, Congress increased unemployment insurance benefits by $600 a week through the end of July. As those extra benefits approach expiration, lawmakers—and many Americans—are at odds about what should happen next.

Tens of millions of Americans are still without work. No one wants to push the unemployed out into the street (literally or proverbially), but some workers are getting bigger unemployment checks than they ever did paychecks. This appears to be a sticking point as Congress has returned from its recess to debate another pandemic relief bill.

Can’t unemployment benefits simply be capped, say at 85 percent of a given worker’s typical wage? That is, can’t the federal government do a replacement-rate top-up, rather than a flat-dollar top-up?

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Her emphasis is on the fixed nature of the increment but it should be obvious that there are problems with the increment itself. The battle right now is apparently between Democrats who, apparently, want to continue the increment indefinitely and Republicans who want to reduce it to $200. How they arrived at that figure is unclear to me but it’s little more sustainable than $600.

The notion that maintaining 15% or 20% of the people on an indefinite basis (if they’re not pledging not to renew the increment, their intent is to continue it on an indefinite basis) simply by extending ourselves credit without consequences is a form of perpetual motion. Disagreeing with it is not cruel. It is simply pointing out the obvious.

A lot of the appropriation is being saved. Trying to inflate it away is cruel, too, and worse yet it’s punishing the prudent.

A sign of how much jeopardy Illinois’s most powerful political figure is in, Gov. J. B. Pritzker is doubling down on his remarks about Illinois House Speaker and state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Madigan. The 免费富强软件 reports:

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Friday that House Speaker Michael Madigan’s declaration that he would not resign after being implicated in ComEd’s federal bribery scandal wasn’t a sufficient response and that he owes the public a full explanation.

“Look, he continues to have unanswered questions hanging out there. He needs to stand up and answer those questions,” said Pritzker, who has called on Madigan to resign if it is proven he played a role ComEd’s efforts to gain political influence with him by offering jobs, contracts and payments to close allies.

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Pritzker’s comments at an unrelated news conference in the Little Village neighborhood came a day after Madigan, long the state’s most powerful politician and the nation’s longest-serving statehouse speaker, vowed he would not step down from his governmental role or from his state Democratic Party chairmanship after polling members of his 73-member House majority by phone.

Basically, Mr. Madigan will need to be carried from his role feet first. He won’t resign. He won’t maintain a low profile. You’ll be able to tell the situation is dire when members of the legislature start turning on him.

That may never happen. He knows where a lot of bodies are buried.

If the predictions in this post by Paul Caron are correct, all of Chicago’s law schools other than the University of Chicago, Northwestern, and John Marshall will perish in the near future. Since both Chicago and Northwestern are ranked in the Top 10 nationally, that suggests that, if you’re black or Hispanic, you probably won’t attend law school in Chicago. That in turn suggests that the pool of minority lawyers in Chicago will dwindle.

I want to thank Derek Thompson for his use of a phrase in his most article in The Atlantic that I feel deserves more currency—”hygiene theater”:

As a covid-19 summer surge sweeps the country, deep cleans are all the rage.

National restaurants such as Applebee’s are deputizing sanitation czars to oversee the constant scrubbing of window ledges, menus, and high chairs. The gym chain Planet Fitness is boasting in ads that “there’s no surface we won’t sanitize, no machine we won’t scrub.” New York City is shutting down its subway system every night, for the first time in its 116-year history, to blast the seats, walls, and poles with a variety of antiseptic weaponry, including electrostatic disinfectant sprays. And in Wauchula, Florida, the local government gave one resident permission to spray the town with hydrogen peroxide as he saw fit. “I think every city in the damn United States needs to be doing it,” he said.

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There is a historical echo here. After 9/11, physical security became a national obsession, especially in airports, where the Transportation Security Administration patted down the crotches of innumerable grandmothers for possible explosives. My colleague Jim Fallows repeatedly referred to this wasteful bonanza as “security theater.”

COVID-19 has reawakened America’s spirit of misdirected anxiety, inspiring businesses and families to obsess over risk-reduction rituals that make us feel safer but don’t actually do much to reduce risk—even as more dangerous activities are still allowed. This is hygiene theater.

I think that is exactly right. In the Aughts we spent trillions of dollars on measures that didn’t actually make us more secure; now we’re doing things that won’t actually make us any safer from disease.

While I think that some of the other measures being prescribed to avoid spreading COVID-19 are also being oversold, none is being oversold as much as the impulse to disinfect everything. The problem with all of the overselling is that there are tradeoffs and all of these measures have the potential to do actual harm. Insisting on two meters of distance makes it hard for sit-down restaurants to turn a profit; facemasks may promote a feeling of invincibility leading to excessive risk-taking; disinfecting surfaces may foster the development of “superbugs”. And then there’s “prevention fatigue”:

Hygiene theater can take limited resources away from more important goals. Goldman shared with me an email he had received from a New Jersey teacher after his Lancet article came out. She said her local schools had considered shutting one day each week for “deep cleaning.” At a time when returning to school will require herculean efforts from teachers and extraordinary ingenuity from administrators to keep kids safely distanced, setting aside entire days to clean surfaces would be a pitiful waste of time and scarce local tax revenue.

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My suggestion? Be prudent. Avoid crowds. Maintain social distancing if only to illustrate the behavior you’d like to see from other people. Wear facemasks as required but don’t fetishize their use or overestimate their effectiveness. They protect other people from you more than they protect you from other people. Take the measures that are best-suited for your particular circumstances. Don’t confuse your living room with a hospital operating room.

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This article by Yinon Weiss at RealClearPolitics catalogs the evidence supporting the safety of reopening schools, concluding:

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The reason many schools won’t open, just like why so many places originally locked down, comes back to fear and politics.

I think he’s missing something basic. The teachers’ unions will inevitably be focused on the safety of the oldest and most health-impaired 免费富强软件. There are a vast number of such impairments to consider—everything from suppressed immune systems to autoimmune diseases to obesity and COPD.

What disappoints me is the framing of the question. Resuming with whatever form of pedagogy is most effective for individual students should be a constraint rather than a variable. The question should never have been “whether” but “how”.